Talk of the Town

Struck by Lightning, the Curious World of Probabilities

Mon. Sep. 26, 7:30 - 9 pm

With: Jeffrey Rosenthal, Mathematician and Author

Jeffrey Rosenthal is a math professor, musician, improvizational comedian and a man fascinated by the probabilities in ordinary life. In a September 2005 article in the National Post he calculated the chances that his name would be drawn in the lottery for ticket buyers at the Toronto Film Festival. In his new book, Struck by Lightning, Rosenthal has put his mathematical mind to the probability behind all kinds of everyday occurrences. From lotteries to casinos, insurance rates to crime rates, gameshows to airline crashes, cancer to SARS, Struck byLightning deconstructs the odds and oddities of chance in an understandable, relevant and irreverent exploration.

Here are a couple of examples of mini-quizzes he put together for Saturday Night Magazine:

Quiz #1

Rank the following events, from most probable to least probable:

a. Your choice of seven numbers will win the Super 7 lottery jackpot
b. The next time you drive across town you will die in a traffic accident
c. The first five cards of your next poker hand will be a royal flush
d. If you select a Canadian at random, you will choose a future prime minister

Quiz #2

a. A group of 100 people all have different birthdays
b. If you start with $1,000 and repeatedly make $5 roulette bets on red, you will get up to $2,000 before losing all your money
c. If you flip a coin 40 times, you will get heads every time
d. Your next cup of coffee will contain a molecule of water that was once in Queen Elizabeth II's tea

Answers below

Here is what Michael Adams, President of Environics Research Group wrote about Jeffrey Rosenthal’s book "Read Struck by Lightning and you will read a book by your favourite professor, the one who made a difficult subject easy to understand by illustrating insights with practical examples from the world around us. In this highly entertaining book, Jeffrey Rosenthal reveals the mysteries of probability and statistics including those ubiquitous public opinion polls and explains mathematical reasoning in ways we can apply in our daily lives--a rare feat. I guarantee your chances of enjoying this book are plus or minus 5 per cent at least 19 times out of 20."

Answer to Quiz #1

c. One chance in 649,740;
d. About one chance in four million;
b. About one chance in seven million;
a. About one chance in 63 million

Answer to Quiz # 2

d. A virtual certainty -- in fact it will probably contain thousands of them
a. About one chance in three million
b. A little less than one chance in a billion
c. Just under one chance in a trillion out to do?

Join us at Talk of the Town for a conversation with Jeffrey Rosenthal. The discussion will take place at UBC Robson Square. Attendance is free of charge, but please pre-register at info.talkofthetown@ubc.ca or phone 604-822-5675.

Biography

Jeffrey Rosenthal is a Professor in the Department of Statistics at the University of Toronto. At 24, he received his Ph.D. in Mathematics from Harvard. He has written two textbooks on probability theory and is also an amateur musician, computer-game programmer and improvisational comedy performer. He lives in Toronto.

Links

The Probability Web

The probability web is a collection of probability resources on the World Wide Web.

Wikipedia

The entry on probability at the on-line encyclopedia, Wikipedia.

Probabilities in the game of Monopoly

A computer scientist named Truman Collins has worked out a series of probabilities that might make you a better player at the board game.

Interactive Mathematics

If you like puzzles and games you might enjoy this site, which has mathematical problems based on probability.

Poker Probabilities

There are many sites that show the odds of achieving particular hands in various poker games. This site is by mathematician Dr. Brian Alspach.